Long-term survival of mechanically ventilated patients with severe COVID-19: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Information is lacking regarding long-term survival and predictive factors for mortality in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation. We aimed to estimate 180-day mortality of patients with COVID-19 requiring invasive ventilation, and to develop a predictive model for long-term mortality. METHODS: Retrospective, multicentre, national cohort study between March 8 and April 30, 2020 in 16 intensive care units (ICU) in Spain. Participants were consecutive adults who received invasive mechanical ventilation for COVID-19. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection detected in positive testing of a nasopharyngeal sample and confirmed by real time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR). The primary outcomes was 180-day survival after hospital admission. Secondary outcomes were length of ICU and hospital stay, and ICU and in-hospital mortality. A predictive model was developed to estimate the probability of 180-day mortality. RESULTS: 868 patients were included (median age, 64 years [interquartile range [IQR], 56-71 years]; 72% male). Severity at ICU admission, estimated by SAPS3, was 56 points [IQR 50-63]. Prior to intubation, 26% received some type of noninvasive respiratory support. The unadjusted overall 180-day survival rates was 59% (95% CI 56-62%). The predictive factors measured during ICU stay, and associated with 180-day mortality were: age [Odds Ratio [OR] per 1-year increase 1.051, 95% CI 1.033-1.068)), SAPS3 (OR per 1-point increase 1.027, 95% CI 1.011-1.044), diabetes (OR 1.546, 95% CI 1.085-2.204), neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio (OR per 1-unit increase 1.008, 95% CI 1.001-1.016), failed attempt of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation prior to orotracheal intubation (OR 1.878 (95% CI 1.124-3.140), use of selective digestive decontamination strategy during ICU stay (OR 0.590 (95% CI 0.358-0.972) and administration of low dosage of corticosteroids (methylprednisolone 1 mg/kg) (OR 2.042 (95% CI 1.205-3.460). CONCLUSION: The long-term survival of mechanically ventilated patients with severe COVID-19 reaches more than 50% and may help to provide individualized risk stratification and potential treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04379258. Registered 10 April 2020 (retrospectively registered).

Digital acoustic surveillance for early detection of respiratory disease outbreaks in Spain: a protocol for an observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Cough is a common symptom of COVID-19 and other respiratory illnesses. However, objectively measuring its frequency and evolution is hindered by the lack of reliable and scalable monitoring systems. This can be overcome by newly developed artificial intelligence models that exploit the portability of smartphones. In the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, cough detection for respiratory disease syndromic surveillance represents a simple means for early outbreak detection and disease surveillance. In this protocol, we evaluate the ability of population-based digital cough surveillance to predict the incidence of respiratory diseases at population level in Navarra, Spain, while assessing individual determinants of uptake of these platforms. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Participants in the Cendea de Cizur, Zizur Mayor or attending the local University of Navarra (Pamplona) will be invited to monitor their night-time cough using the smartphone app Hyfe Cough Tracker. Detected coughs will be aggregated in time and space. Incidence of COVID-19 and other diagnosed respiratory diseases within the participants cohort, and the study area and population will be collected from local health facilities and used to carry out an autoregressive moving average analysis on those independent time series. In a mixed-methods design, we will explore barriers and facilitators of continuous digital cough monitoring by evaluating participation patterns and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants will fill an acceptability questionnaire and a subgroup will participate in focus group discussions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was obtained from the ethics committee of the Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal, Canada and the Medical Research Ethics Committee of Navarre, Spain. Preliminary findings will be shared with civil and health authorities and reported to individual participants. Results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04762693.

Early Tracheostomy for Managing ICU Capacity During the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Propensity-Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, shortages of ventilators and ICU beds overwhelmed health care systems. Whether early tracheostomy reduces the duration of mechanical ventilation and ICU stay is controversial. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can failure-free day outcomes focused on ICU resources help to decide the optimal timing of tracheostomy in overburdened health care systems during viral epidemics? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who had undergone tracheostomy in 15 Spanish ICUs during the surge, when ICU occupancy modified clinician criteria to perform tracheostomy in Patients with COVID-19. We compared ventilator-free days at 28 and 60 days and ICU- and hospital bed-free days at 28 and 60 days in propensity score-matched cohorts who underwent tracheostomy at different timings (≤ 7 days, 8-10 days, and 11-14 days after intubation). RESULTS: Of 1,939 patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia, 682 (35.2%) underwent tracheostomy, 382 (56%) within 14 days. Earlier tracheostomy was associated with more ventilator-free days at 28 days (≤ 7 days vs > 7 days [116 patients included in the analysis]: median, 9 days [interquartile range (IQR), 0-15 days] vs 3 days [IQR, 0-7 days]; difference between groups, 4.5 days; 95% CI, 2.3-6.7 days; 8-10 days vs > 10 days [222 patients analyzed]: 6 days [IQR, 0-10 days] vs 0 days [IQR, 0-6 days]; difference, 3.1 days; 95% CI, 1.7-4.5 days; 11-14 days vs > 14 days [318 patients analyzed]: 4 days [IQR, 0-9 days] vs 0 days [IQR, 0-2 days]; difference, 3 days; 95% CI, 2.1-3.9 days). Except hospital bed-free days at 28 days, all other end points were better with early tracheostomy. INTERPRETATION: Optimal timing of tracheostomy may improve patient outcomes and may alleviate ICU capacity strain during the COVID-19 pandemic without increasing mortality. Tracheostomy within the first work on a ventilator in particular may improve ICU availability.

Impact of Remdesivir on the Treatment of COVID-19 During the First Wave in Spain.

INTRODUCTION: Spain was one of the most affected countries during the first wave of COVID-19, having the highest mortality rate in Europe. The aim of this retrospective study is to estimate the impact that remdesivir-the first drug for COVID-19 approved in the EU-would have had in the first wave. METHODS: This study simulated the impact that remdesivir could have had on the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) capacity (bed occupancy) and the number of deaths that could have been prevented, based on two scenarios: a real-life scenario (without remdesivir) and an alternative scenario (with remdesivir). It considered the clinical results of the ACTT-1 trial in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia who required supplemental oxygen. The occupancy rates in general wards and ICUs were estimated in both scenarios. RESULTS: Remdesivir use could have prevented the admission of 2587 patients (43.75%) in the ICUs. It could have also increased the SNHS capacity in 5656 general wards beds and 1700 ICU beds, showing an increase in the number of beds available of 17.53% (95% CI 3.98%-24.42%) and 23.98% (95% CI 21.33%-28.22%), respectively, at the peak of the occupancy rates. Furthermore, remdesivir use could have prevented 7639 deaths due to COVID-19, which implies a 27.51% reduction (95% CI 14.25%-34.07%). CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir could have relieved the pressure on the SNHS and could have reduced the death toll, providing a better strategy for the management of COVID-19 during the first wave.

A phase II, single-center, double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled trial to explore the efficacy and safety of intravenous melatonin in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (MelCOVID study): a structured summary of a study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: • Primary objective: to evaluate the effect of intravenous melatonin (IVM) on mortality in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with COVID-19. • Secondary objectives: ◦ To evaluate the effect of IVM on ICU length of stay. ◦ To evaluate the effect of IVM on the length of mechanical ventilation (MV). ◦ To evaluate if the use of IVM is associated with an increase in the number of ventilator-free days. ◦ To evaluate if the use of IVM is associated with a reduced number of failing organs as determined by the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scale. ◦ To evaluate if the use of IVM is associated with a reduction of the frequency and severity of COVID-19-associated thromboembolic phenomena. ◦ To evaluate if the use of IVM is associated with a decreased systemic inflammatory response assessed by plasma levels of ferritin, D-dimer, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and interleukin-6. ◦ To evaluate if the use of IVM is associated with an improvement in hematologic parameters. ◦ To evaluate if the use of IVM is associated with an improvement in biochemical parameters. ◦ To evaluate if the use of IVM is associated with an improvement in blood gas analysis parameters. ◦ To evaluate adverse events during the 28 day study period. TRIAL DESIGN: Phase II, single center, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial with a two-arm parallel group design and 2:1 allocation ratio. PARTICIPANTS: Only critically ill adult patients that fulfill all of the inclusion criteria and none of the exclusion criteria will be included. The study will be conducted in a mixed ICU of a publicly funded tertiary referral center in Madrid, Spain with a 30-bed capacity and 1100 admissions per year. • Inclusion criteria: ◦ Patient, family member or legal guardian has provided written Informed Consent. ◦ Age ε 18 years. ◦ Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with compatible symptoms AND a positive RT-PCR. ◦ Admission to the ICU with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure attributed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. ◦ ICU length of stay of less than 7 days prior to randomization with or without MV and without signs of improvement in respiratory failure (MURRAY score at randomization greater or equal to the MURRAY score at ICU admission). • Exclusion criteria: ◦ Participant in a different COVID-19 study in which the study drug is under clinical development and hasn't been previously authorized for commercialization. ◦ Liver enzymes > 5 times the upper normal range. ◦ Chronic kidney disease with GFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (stage 4 or greater) or need for hemodialysis. ◦ Pregnancy. A pregnancy test will be performed on every woman younger than 55 years of age prior to inclusion. ◦ Terminal surgical or medical illness. ◦ Autoimmune disease. ◦ Any patient condition that can prevent the study procedures to be carried out at the treating physician's judgement. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: All patients will receive standard-of-care treatment according to the current institutional protocols. In addition, patients will be randomized in a 2:1 ratio to receive: • Experimental group (12 patients): 7 days of 5 mg per Kg of actual body weight per day of intravenous melatonin every 6 hours. Maximum daily dose 500 mg per day. • Control group (6 patients): 7 days of 5 mg per Kg of actual body weight per day of intravenous identically-looking placebo every 6 hours. After 3 days of treatment, 3 intensive care physicians will evaluate the participant and decide whether or not to complete the treatment based on their clinical assessment: • If objective or subjective signs of improvement or no worsening of the general clinical condition, respiratory failure, inflammatory state or multi-organ failure are observed, the participant will continue the treatment until completion. • If an adverse effect or clinical impairment is observed that is objectively or subjectively attributable to the study drug the treatment will be stopped. MAIN OUTCOME: Mortality in each study group represented in frequency and time-to-event at day 28 after randomization RANDOMIZATION: The randomization sequence was created using SAS version 9.4 statistical software (programmed and validated macros) with a 2:1 allocation. No randomization seed was pre-specified. The randomization seed was generated using the time on the computer where the program was executed. BLINDING (MASKING): Participants, caregivers and study groups will be blinded to arm allocation. NUMBERS TO BE RANDOMIZED (SAMPLE SIZE): A total of 18 patients will be randomized in this trial: 12 to the experimental arm and 6 to the control arm. TRIAL STATUS: Protocol version 2.0, June 5th 2020. Trial status: recruitment not started. The first patient is expected to be recruited in October 2020. The last patient is anticipated to be recruited in August 2021. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EU Clinical Trials Register. Date of trial registration: 10 July 2020. URL: https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-001808-42/ES FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest of expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

A Cohort of Patients with COVID-19 in a Major Teaching Hospital in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Since the confirmation of the first patient infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Spain in January 2020, the epidemic has grown rapidly, with the greatest impact on the region of Madrid. This article describes the first 2226 adult patients with COVID-19, consecutively admitted to La Paz University Hospital in Madrid. METHODS: Our cohort included all patients consecutively hospitalized who had a final outcome (death or discharge) in a 1286-bed hospital of Madrid (Spain) from 25 February (first case admitted) to 19 April 2020. The data were manually entered into an electronic case report form, which was monitored prior to the analysis. RESULTS: We consecutively included 2226 adult patients admitted to the hospital who either died (460) or were discharged (1766). The patients' median age was 61 years, and 51.8% were women. The most common comorbidity was arterial hypertension (41.3%), and the most common symptom on admission was fever (71.2%). The median time from disease onset to hospital admission was 6 days. The overall mortality was 20.7% and was higher in men (26.6% vs. 15.1%). Seventy-five patients with a final outcome were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) (3.4%). Most patients admitted to the ICU were men, and the median age was 64 years. Baseline laboratory values on admission were consistent with an impaired immune-inflammatory profile. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a description of the first large cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Europe. Advanced age, male sex, the presence of comorbidities and abnormal laboratory values were more common among the patients with fatal outcomes.